US election forecast and map

Democratic Party

Republican Party

270 votes to win
The United States election is on a knife’s-edge. 
Polling suggests that in most key swing states any leads by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump are well within a tight margin of error. 
However, using years of election results, demographic trends and historic polling, the Telegraph’s data science team has calculated that – for the moment – the election is now comfortably leaning towards the Democrats. 
Running some 2,500 simulations, the Democrats on average secured 278 electoral college votes, marginally ahead of the Republican 260 votes. 
The model suggests that the Republicans are likely to win tightly fought races in Georgia and North Carolina. 

However, the Democrats are on track to secure the Great Lake states of Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt’s Nevada and Arizona.  Importantly, the key state of Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes also leans Democrat.
Some of these results reflect the razor thin leads in state-level polling, but modelling allows us to apply other key electoral indicators to the mix. 
Turnout, tactical voting and other factors can influence results dramatically. How states with large ethnic minority or well-educated populations have voted in the past might help inform how those with changing demographics might vote today. 
To factor this in, we run different simulations, adjusting the influence of these and other factors in each case across every seat, to give a range of different results. 
Currently, in some 74 per cent of simulations the Democrats win. 

However, that means in 25 per cent of outcomes the Republicans secure the majority of electoral votes needed to take the presidency and in 1 per cent of outcomes there is an electoral tie.  

Democrat
Republican

That range of outcomes is built off our model’s uncertainty in six states. 
Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan were won by either candidate with a probability of 51 per cent or lower. 
If Pennsylvania, where we predict with just 50.7 per cent probability a Democrat victory, and one other state were to go instead to the Republicans, they would win the election. 
Currently, our model has suggested that, despite assassination attempts and decisive debates, the race is still open for either side. 
As the campaign enters its final weeks, the Democrats are slowly holding the advantage, increasing those odds with every week.

However, six weeks is a long time; any movement towards Trump in the coming days could change the course of American history.
Modelling and projections by Peter Childs and Thomas Lawrie. Further analysis by Ben Butcher, Meike Eijsberg and Ollie Corfe. Visual production and development by Connor Ibbetson.