Trump making gains over Kamala Harris weeks before presidential election: Polls

With the US presidential election merely two weeks away, a new national poll has indicated former president Donald Trump is leading the race to the White House against Vice President Kamala Harris.
The poll shows the former president enjoying 47% support of likely voters around the country while Harris trails right behind with 45%, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released on Wednesday. The poll also included third party and independent candidates.
The new survey conducted by the Journal was a bit different from the previous survey conducted in August in which Harris had a two-point lead over Trump.
The new two-point lead, however, is within the new poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is still open with either of the candidates potentially leading.
The Journal surveyed 1,500 registered voters who were questioned between October 19 to October 22. The new poll also shows the former president with a three-point margin (49% to 46%) over Harris in a head-to-head match-up.
Interestingly, the new poll makes it clear that Harris has lost the lead she held in the previous months, with her approval rating trailing too at 42%-54%. Trump, on the other hand, has improved his chances with voters approving his last White House stint by a 52%-48% margin.
The new poll follows the Fox News national survey released last week that showed Trump with a two-point lead over Harris.
In the last two weeks, numerous polls, including ones from CBS News, USA Today and Suffolk University have indicated Harris with a slight lead. All the polls were, however, within the margin of error.
Harris has had an eventful run to the election. She replaced President Joe Biden for the Democratic Presidential ticket in July and saw a surge in fundraising and poll numbers. In the lead up to the election so far, Harris enjoyed the edge over Trump, according to most national polls, in August and after the first and only presidential debate between the two candidates in early September.
In late September and October, however, most polls have pointed to Trump making significant gains, according to Fox News.
In the latest Fox News poll, Trump had 50% support while Harris trailed with 48% – the result being a reversal from last month when Harris had a clear lead.
“Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters,” said veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion.”
Although national polls are a good way to gauge the national mood regarding the race to the White House, they cannot predict the winner as that comes down to the electoral votes.
The latest surveys done in the battleground states, where President Biden marginally beat Trump by razor thin margins in 2020, are more likely to determine the winner between Trump and Harris.
A poll conducted in the battleground states by Fox News showed Harris with a six-point lead over the former president amongst respondents who were questioned in all the seven battleground states.
While the race remains close between the two candidates, the numbers regarding campaign cash and expenditure, another key metric in the US presidential election, showed Harris as the clear winner.
Harris started this month with a massive financial advantage over Trump, according to the latest federal fundraising filings. The vice president’s campaign brought in $221.8 million in September alone. The figure was more than triple of the $60 million brought in by Trump.
Before September, too, Harris outspent Trump vastly, with most of her funds going into running political ads against Trump. Even with the expenses, Harris continues to hold more cash than Trump as the candidates run through October.
The Harris campaign reported holding $187 million at the end of September, compared to $119 million for the Trump campaign.
Notably, the fundraising numbers reported by the candidates does not include additional money brought in by national party committees or affiliated organisations. Both the candidates have utilised affiliated fundraising committees to raise money.